HANOVER — For most of this season, Hanover football has won with its defense and waited on its offense. On Friday night, both showed up at full strength.
Hanover routed Hollis-Brookline 42-8, the Bears’ highest-scoring game of the season and their third straight win. Junior running back Jack Richardson led the way with four touchdowns. Quarterback EJ Frechette ran for one score and threw a touchdown pass to “Do-it-all” Dima Petrov as Hanover improved to 5-3.
The offense was balanced and lethal. Hanover hurt the Cavaliers on the ground with Richardson and through the air with Frechette, and it didn’t need many chances to turn drives into points. This was a team that had scored 20 or fewer points in six of its first seven games. That included a 9-6 win at Kingswood the week before, in which points were hard to come by.
The defense was strong as usual. The only points Hollis-Brookline managed were one score, well into the second half with the game already decided. Through eight games, Hanover has allowed just 89 points, about 11 per game, one of the best marks in Division II. Its three losses, to Plymouth, Milford and Souhegan, came by a combined 19 points.
The Cavaliers, now 1-7, are among the weakest teams in the division this year, so the score should be read with some caution. But the result was exactly what a playoff team should produce against an overmatched opponent. It also came at the right time.
Where the playoff picture stands
Hanover enters the final week as the No. 3 team in our Division II power rankings, with a rating of 80.4 out of 100. The ranking combines scoring margin adjusted for opponents, NHIAA-style point rating, record, matchup quality and strength of schedule. Unbeaten Souhegan (94.7) and Plymouth (93.5) are in a tier of their own.
Hanover and Pelham’s schedules rank as the toughest in Division II. Pelham’s composite power rating is slightly higher at 82.6, but Hanover ranks ahead of the Pythons because the two are statistically very close and the Bears beat the Pythons 12-7 on Sept. 18. Merrimack Valley (78.4), on the other hand, is fifth despite a 7-1 record, largely because it has of one of the division’s softest schedules.
Friday’s weekend helped Hanover beyond its own victory. Pelham lost 21-7 at Souhegan, and Milford fell 36-35 to ConVal. That left Hanover and Pelham tied in the NHIAA-style point rating, with Hanover holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Our playoff simulation, which calculated all 256 possible outcomes of the eight remaining Division II games, gives Hanover a 100% chance of making the eight-team field. The real question is where the Bears will be seeded, and that is now almost entirely in their own hands.
Plymouth and Souhegan are virtually locked into the top two seeds, and Merrimack Valley is the No. 3 seed in more than 99% of outcomes. Behind them, the last two playoff spots are wide open. John Stark, Kingswood, Milford and Kennett each have somewhere between a 40% and 62% chance. Kingswood and Kennett play each other Friday in what amounts to an elimination game.
Everything rides on Manchester West
Hanover closes the regular season Friday night at Manchester West, and the outcome will decide its seed.
The Blue Knights are 5-3 and come off a 17-14 loss at John Stark. They are also the most direct comparison Hanover has faced all year. Both teams lost to Souhegan, and both beat ConVal and John Stark. Against the other common opponents, the results split in opposite directions. Hanover beat Pelham 12-7 while West lost to the Pythons 35-24. Hanover was shut out 7-0 by Milford, while West beat the Spartans 27-16.
West has shown more scoring ability over the course of the season. Hanover has relied on its defense. Friday will test whether the Bears’ offensive breakout against Hollis-Brookline can carry over against a much stronger opponent.
The scenarios are clear:
If Hanover wins, it is the No. 4 seed in 99.6% of simulated outcomes. That means the Bears would host a quarterfinal, most likely a rematch with No. 5 Pelham. A win over a five-win West team would raise Hanover’s point rating to about 11.56. Pelham could reach only about 11.33 even with a win over Milford.
If Hanover loses, it drops to the No. 6 seed in every simulated outcome and would travel to No. 3 Merrimack Valley. A West win would not just add a loss to Hanover’s record. It would also lift both West and Pelham past the Bears in the point rating, because Pelham earns credit for having beaten West earlier.
The simulation gives Hanover about a 60% chance of winning Friday. That puts the overall odds at roughly 60% for the No. 4 seed and 40% for No. 6.
A month ago, after a 2-3 start, the question was whether Hanover would get into the playoffs at all. The defense answered that. Friday’s 42-point performance was the strongest sign yet that the offense can make Hanover more than just a playoff team.
A win at Manchester West would mean a home playoff game and a four-game winning streak heading into November.